Prospects for Normalization on the Korean Peninsula: A View from Moscow

Abstract

After what seemed like a hopeless impasse in the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, signs appeared that Pyongyang and Washington had changed their stances and were ready to seek a way out. The DPRK, the U.S., and South Korea announced a shift away from direct confrontation towards a search for compromise. When the Trump administration increased pressure on the DPRK, Russian policy on the Korean Peninsula drew attention, with some experts saying that Russia will act as a spoiler. For now, Russia remains one of the key actors and is able to play a constructive role. This article uses historical data to provide a complex analysis of the different players’ positions. U.S., Japan, and South Korea conduct a well‐coordinated process, with Washington drawing its allies into the negotiation process. Russia and China joined sanctions; however, they consider unilateral sanctions excessive and argue that only constructive dialogue can ensure progress on Korean affairs.