Prospects for Import Substitution and Balancing Ukraine’s External Trade

Abstract

Abstract The development of world economic relations leads to the intensification of mutual exchange of goods between countries. In the article, we have analyzed the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s external trade, assessed the degree of import dependence of the domestic market, and determined preconditions and national potential of import substitution of goods, including high-tech ones. We have determined public policy areas of import substitution in Ukraine, which include formation of the list of import-substituting goods, stimulation, export diversification, and the industrial and innovative development of the economy. The purpose of the article is to study the imbalances in Ukraine’s external trade in the context of the implementation of import substitution policy. The article analyzes the statistical and economic indicators, with a view to achieving the final research aims, in the period from 2010 to 2022 in Ukraine, in the service of military actions from 2014, and a full-scale invasion in January 2022, as well as conditions in the pandemic years (2019–21). Other countries are also considered concomitantly. We have drawn conclusions on the tendencies to increase the share of imports in the domestic market and proposed recommendations for the development of effective functioning of the internal market.