Prospects for Energy Markets and Investment in Traditional Oil & Gas

Abstract

The oil and gas industry is facing as hostile an environment as it ever has. Already under increasing pressure from a highly vocal environmental lobby, precious sources of capital from all angles were already turning their backs on the industry when COVID-19 struck. The pandemic has provoked a further two-pronged attack on the industry. First, it dealt a huge blow to energy demand, as lock-down grounded economic activity, before driving what are likely to become long-term changes to our behavioural patterns with material consequences on global energy demand. Secondly, and perhaps more worryingly, the COVID-19 experience has given the impression that we can already live without the industry, encouraging the anti-industry lobby yet further. However, we cannot escape the fact that we are set to rely fundamentally on the oil and gas industry for decades to come. The challenge for the industry is in part to react to the reality of the political environment, evolving the way it operates to show it can deliver the necessary ESG-focused goals, but also to demonstrate that the industry remains a fundamental part of our global economy – our way of life: we need the industry, and the industry needs investment. COVID-19 did not start the debate, but has been a massive catalyst in raising the awareness of the issues. Through its direct impact on the economics for the industry, as well as helping increase the political pressure on it, the pandemic has increased the threat the industry faces in trying to fund itself sustainably. While many traditional investors count themselves out, the opportunity is opening up for those who recognise the importance of the industry and are prepared to buck the current trend.