Abstract
The future size of world population depends critically on what happens in sub-Saharan Africa, the one remaining region with high fertility and rapid population growth. The United Nations envisages a continuing slow pace of fertility change, from five births per woman today to three by mid-century, in which case the population of the region will increase by over one billion. However, an accelerated decline is feasible, particularly in east Africa. The main grounds for optimism include rising international concern and funding for family planning (after fifteen years of neglect), and favourable shifts in the attitudes of political leaders in Africa. The examples of Ethiopia and Rwanda show political will and efficient programmes can stimulate rapid reproductive change.
Highlights
The future of the world’s population depends on many factors that are impossible to predict with certainty
The future size of world population depends critically on what happens in subSaharan Africa, the one remaining region with high fertility and rapid population growth
The biggest uncertainty is the future of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa, the one remaining region with high birth rates and rapid population growth
Summary
John Cleland is Professor Emeritus of Medical Demography at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. He is a former president of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, a fellow of the British Academy and received a CBE for services to social science
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