Prospects and Policies for Soviet-American Reconciliation

Abstract

What does the near-term future of Soviet-American relations hold in store? If asked about the next five to ten years, many if not most government officials, foreign policy elites, and academic experts in the United States and Western Europe would presumably point to continued cold war. Among those who envisage a new era in superpower relations, most would probably focus upon Mikhail Gorbachev's leadership, the Soviet regime's new political openness (glasnost) and economic restructuring (perestroika), and the superpowers' mutual security interests. This article diverges from both interpretations. In suggesting that a nearterm end of the cold war is decidedly plausible, it does not rely upon personalities, glasnost, and only marginally upon perestroika. It accords equal attention to the United States and stresses each state's recognition of its limits and limitations more than their shared security concerns. If the cold war does end, it will almost surely be replaced by a Soviet-American reconciliation, referring to a relationship and its underlying rationale. As a relationship, reconciliation features mutual acceptance, shared restraints, and an acknowledgment of one another's security concerns and central interests. The superpowers would continue to emphasize their very different global visions, but Third World competition would be markedly limited in scope and intensity, at a minimum obviating instances of coercive deterrence and compellence. In the absence of forceful superpower intrusions, both states would acknowledge that they can live with most outcomes resulting from the interplay of regional and local