Prospects and Forecasts for the Development of Polish Capital Market in the Wake of EU Accession

Abstract

The capital market in Poland is a very recent one, as it only dates back to 1991. To assess its development and functioning to date we have to compare it with other capital markets — both the mature ones, which have been operating for many years, as well as with others, which, like the Polish market, have a short history. In doing so we have to take into consideration the division of capital markets based on the principles of their operation that have developed there — such division distinguishes between the Anglo-Saxon and the German-Japanese models of the capital market. We also have to evaluate the prospects for the development of the Polish capital market — particularly in view of the globalisation of the economy and Poland‘s accession to the European Union. Since legal and technological barriers restricting transfer of capital between countries are being removed, capital markets in individual countries, Poland included, no longer form discrete and closed organisms that do not react to economic developments in other countries. The freedom of movement of capital resulting from international agreements, coupled with broad access to information and rapid development of electronics, telecommunications and information technology, have practically removed all obstacles to international movement of capital. In a dozen seconds or so you can transfer millions of dollars from the London Stock Exchange to the stoek markets in Warsaw or Tokyo.Another reason why the Polish capital market can be regarded as a global market is the fact that Poland became an OECD member in 1996, and the EU membership is a matter of near rather than distant future. Apart from benefits, this also entails requirements concerning easier access of foreign capital to the Polish market, but also the possibility of transfer of Polish capital to foreign markets.The models of functioning of the banking industry and the capital market as a whole are now being formed in Poland. The process is similar in both cases and we may expect that it will finally result in an intermediate model, based on both, the Anglo-Saxon and the German-Japanese experiences.