Prospective validation of the Urgent Surgery Elderly Mortality risk score (USEM)

Abstract

IntroductionWe aimed to test the predictive ability and to compare the predictive ability of the USEM to SRS, SORT and ASA in a prospective sample. Patients and methodsA Prospective cohort of >65-year-old patients undergoing urgent abdominal surgery in a Hospital. Models calibration and discrimination were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. ResultsA total of 500 patients with a median age of 78 years were included. The AUROC in the validation cohort was 0.824. The USEM overestimated mortality (Test Hosmer-Lemeshow p < 0.001), after recalibration the USEM provided an accurate prediction of postoperative mortality. ConclusionsAfter the recalibration, the USEM had good discriminant power to estimate the risk of mortality in elderly patients after urgent abdominal surgery.