Prospective Validation of the Palliative Prognostic Index in Patients with Cancer

Abstract

The Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) was devised and validated in patients with cancer in a hospice inpatient unit in Japan. The aim of this study was to test its accuracy in a different population, in a range of care settings and in those receiving palliative chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The information required to calculate the PPI was recorded for patients referred to a hospital-based consultancy palliative care service, a hospice home care service, and a hospice inpatient unit. One hundred ninety-four patients were included in the study, 43% of whom were receiving chemotherapy /or radiotherapy or both. Use of the PPI split patients into three subgroups based on PPI score. Group 1 corresponded to patients with PPI ≤ 4, median survival 68 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 52, 115 days). Group 2 corresponded to those with PPI > 4 and ≤6, median survival 21 days (95% CI 13, 33), and Group 3 corresponded to patients with PPI > 6, median survival five days (95% CI 3, 11). Using the PPI, survival of less than three weeks was predicted with a positive predictive value of 86% and negative predictive value of 76%. Survival of less than six weeks was predicted with a positive predictive value of 91% and negative predictive value of 64%. The PPI is quick and easy to use, and can be applied to patients with cancer, in hospital, in hospice, and at home. It may be used by general physicians to achieve prognostic accuracy comparable, if not superior, to that of physicians experienced in oncology and palliative care, and by oncology and palliative care specialists, to improve the accuracy of their survival predictions.