Abstract

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is emerging as a major public health problem in the United States. Between 1973 and 1999 there was a more than 30-fold increase in the number of patients enrolled in the Medicare funded end-stage renal disease (ESRD) program, from approximately 10,000 to 340,000 [1]. The annual incidence of ESRD has nearly doubled from 48,350 patients (190 per million) in 1991 to 89,252 (317 per million) in 1999. Estimates from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), using the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equation from the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study [2, 3], showed that the prevalence of CKD, defined as a GFR 60 mL/min /1.73 m2, was approximately 8.3 million individuals, or 4.7% [4]. The MDRD Study indicated that 85% of patients with impaired kidney function (GFR 55 mL/min/1.73m2) have progressive losses of kidney function at a rate of 4 mL/min per year [5]. The progressive nature of CKD, and epidemiologic factors that include population aging, increasing prevalence of type II diabetes and hypertension, improved survival of patients on dialysis, and the acceptance of higher risk patients into ESRD programs, explain the ongoing and projected increases in the numbers of patients with ESRD. The increasing incidence and prevalence of ESRD and CKD is a global trend not just confined to the United States [6]. Although incidence rates for the United States and Japan are nearly two-fold higher than those of other industrialized nations, the rates of growth appear to be quite similar, best described by an exponential growth curve at the rate of 7.36% per year [7]. The impact of these numbers must be interpreted from

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