Prospective Fertility and Underlying Preferences: A Longitudinal Study in Taiwan

Abstract

The predictive capabilities of underlying preferences for number and sex of children (IN and IS scale values) for future fertility are examined by using longitudinal data on Taiwanese wives interviewed in a fertility survey in 1973. Preference scale information obtained at that time is related to their reproductive histories during the 4 year follow-up period 1973-7 by using information about births secured from the Taiwan Population Register. The positive association of IN-scale values with number of prospective births is stronger than might be expected from conventional statements about number of children wanted initial parity or the compositional differences in education and urbanization. Sex preference is also found to affect subsequent fertility. The IS scale gives a more complete picture of the impact of sex preference than has previously been possible from the analysis of parity progression ratios alone. An effect of preference for girls as well as boys is found although the impact is smaller. Women who report that they want no more children but who nonetheless have an underlying preference for larger families are less likely to be contraceptors and more likely to have an unwanted birth during the follow-up period. The predictive accuracy of statements of intentions to have no more children and the apparent contradictory behavior of some women who make such statements can be understood better if underlying preference structure is taken into consideration. (Authors)