Prospective analysis of deforestation determinants in the Amazonian landscapes

Abstract

Amazonian landscapes are socio-ecological systems that provide fundamental ecosystem services for the maintenance of landscape regulation, biodiversity, and climate regulation. The increasing pressure of population density, productive activities over natural resources, infrastructure development, timber exploitation, and illicit crops among other determinants have put Amazonian landscapes at risk due to deforestation. This research work aims to understand the possible interactions of the determinants of Amazonian deforestation and to describe its complex behavior with the socio-ecological systems with a supporting vision for future studies. Initially, a rigorous analysis the of literature review on the determinants of deforestation in the Amazon was made to be carried out a systemic representation based on the dynamics of systems methodology on the behavioral interactions between these different determinants. The determinants of deforestation can be classified into determinants by activity, by support, by social dynamism, and by political pressure, which converge in these natural areas of the Amazonian landscape and transform into an urban-agricultural area, this change in the coverage of Amazonian land use generating rate environmental problems both locally and globally. By analyzing the causal relationships of the determinants of Amazon deforestation in the different scenarios, the proposed hypothesis is that with the large-scale increase of productive activities on natural resources, the Amazonian landscapes will not be sustainable in urban-agricultural environments. Finally, this research found that Amazon can confront different scenarios with diverse futures subject to the socio-ecological actions generated for the conservation and relevance of its ecosystem services.