PROS PECTS FOR IN DIA'S CEREAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND TO 202 0

Abstract

Al though many In di ans still do not have an ade quate diet, the na tional food situa tion is dra mati cally bet ter to day than 30 years ago. In 1970, In dia’s popu la tion was only two- thirds its cur rent size, but ce real pro duc tion was only half the cur rent level and the coun try was criti cally de pend ent on food aid to pre vent wide spread fam ine, par ticu larly in drought years. To day, In dia is self- sufficient in ce re als. The na tion pro duces and con sumes about 170 mil lion met ric tons of ce re als each year (in clud ing seed and waste) . But will In dia con tinue to be self- sufficient in ce re als in the years ahead? Over the next 20 years, will to tal ce real de mand dou ble again to over 340 mil lion tons? Or will there be sig nifi cant de par tures from past trends that may slow or in crease growth in de mand? And will na tional pro duc tion of ce re als con tinue to keep pace with de mand, or will in creas ing re source scar city and deg ra da tion—and al ready high use of high- yielding va rie ties (HYVs), fer til iz ers, and ir ri ga tion—limit fu ture growth op por tu ni ties? The an swer de pends on sev eral fac tors: growth trends in popu la tion, per cap ita in come, and ur bani za tion; changes in taste as more peo ple have bet ter ac cess to, and more in for ma tion about, al ter na tive foods; in creased re li ance on ce re als fo r feed in re sponse to ris ing con sump tion of meat prod ucts; an d the im pact of fu ture eco nomic growth on the poor. Us ing 1993 as the base year, this study pres ents pro jec tions of ce real de mand and sup ply bal ances to 2020 un der alternative sce nar ios for in come growth, con sump tion be hav ior, and ag ri cul tural pro duc tion strate gies. THE CHALLENGES AHEAD: CEREAL DEMAN D In dia’s ag ri cul ture sec tor is fac ing many pres sures over the next two dec ades. To day’s popu la tion of nearly 1 bil lion is pro jected to rise to 1.3 bil lion by 2020, with the share of the popu la tion liv ing in ur ban ar eas ris ing from 26 per cent to 35 per cen t of the to tal popu la tion. The pos si bili ties for per cap ita in come growth vary widely, from a best- case sce nario of 6 per cent average an nual growth to a worst- case sce nario of 2 per cent per year. As a base line case, this study as sumed 3.7 per cent growth, which is a lit tle lower than the ac tual rate of growth achieved in re cent years. In dia’s cur rently low per cap ita con sump tion of live stock prod ucts could change rap idly as the econ omy grows. Many more house holds are now con sum ing live stock prod ucts than a dec ade ago. There is also evi dence that the av er age budget shares for milk and meat are in creas ing, ap par ently as a re sult of struc tural shifts in con sumer pref er ences. Pro jected de mand for meat and eggs in 2020 is 20 mil lion tons, a four fold in crease over 1993 con sump tion of 5 mil lion tons. Milk and milk prod ucts are pro jected to in crease more than five times, from 52 mil lion tons in 1993 to 289 mil lion tons in 2020. These pro jec tions also im ply sig nifi cant in creases in daily per cap ita con sump tion, from 0.016 to 0.041 kilo gram for meat and eggs and 0.162 to 0.597 kilo gram for milk and milk prod ucts. As de mand for live stock prod ucts grows, live stock pro duc ers are likely to greatly in crease their use of ce real feeds. To day, less than 5 mil lion tons of ce re als (3–4 per cent of to tal ce real pro duc tion) are fed to live stock each year—most live stock still feed pri mar ily on crop by- products, house hold waste, and open graz ing ar eas. The base line pro jec tion for ce real feed—50 mil lion tons by 2020—is a more than twelve fold in crease over 1993 and sev eral times larger than other re cent pro jec tions. The base line pro jec tion for to tal ce real de mand in 2020 is 296 mil lion tons—50 mil lion tons for feed and 246 mil lion tons for di rect human con sump tion. This would mean a dou bling of ce real demand over 1993, which is com pa ra ble to the kind of in crease that In dia ex pe ri enced over the past 30 years.