Abstract
A methodology for estimating the reliability of weapon systems early in development, even before system testing, has been applied to four types of advanced gun propulsion (advanced solids, liquid propellant, electromagnetic, and electrothermal) for three different weapon system types (artillery, armor, and air defense). The goals were to determine the feasibility of developing a methodology by which the reliability of systems resulting from tech base programs could be estimated and to develop reliability projections of artillery, armor, and air defense weapon systems resulting from the tech base efforts in new propulsion systems. The performance characteristics of the systems are defined, the approach taken in the study is described, and the results are summarized. The numerical reliability results are not intended to be used for determining reliability requirements for these weapon systems but instead to give the system designer a better understanding of those subsystems which are expected to be high risk. >
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