Proposition of a simulation-based method for port capacity assessment and expansion planning

Abstract

In port planning, studies regarding port capacity choice are essential for resource allocation. Even though simulation is a method that enables detailing and flexibility for analyzing complex systems such as ports and terminals, it was not found in a systematic literature review a robust method for port capacity assessment based on simulation and capable of analyzing port operations from inland accesses to waterways. That said, this paper aims to propose a simulation-based method for port capacity assessment and expansion planning. The proposed method can associate a capacity value to a given resource configuration and/or indicate which resource configurations are optimal to given expected throughputs. Economic or operational criteria can be chosen for capacity planning. The method is based on Monte Carlo simulations and was tested in a discrete-event simulation model of a container terminal, where berths, storage slots and truck gates had their expansions evaluated. The results will assist port planners in resource configuration decisions, such as when to construct a new berth or acquire new yard equipment.