Proposition of a method for stochastic analysis of value streams

Abstract

This article aims at proposing a method to stochastically analyze values streams taking into consideration the effect of critical uncertainty sources on lead time. The proposed method combines value stream mapping (VSM) and Monte Carlo simulation to identify improvement opportunities. To illustrate this approach, we carried out a case study in the special nutrition value stream of a Brazilian public hospital. Results show that the proposed method allows the identification of improvement opportunities that would not be considered in the classical deterministic VSM approach. Further, the integration of the stochastic analysis enables the determination of a more realistic lead time, which supports a more assertive planning and scheduling of the value stream. The proposed method addresses a fundamental gap in traditional VSM without adding much complexity to the analysis procedure, which is a common practical issue in previous works that integrated other stochastic methods into VSM.