Proposing novel ensemble approach of particle swarm optimized and machine learning algorithms for drought vulnerability mapping in Jharkhand, India

Abstract

Drought, a natural and very complex climatic hazard, causes impacts on natural and socio-economic environments. This study aims to produce the drought vulnerability map (DVM) considering novel ensemble machine learning algorithms (MLAs) in Jharkhand, India. Forty, drought vulnerability determining factors under the categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were used. Then, four machine learning and four novel ensemble approaches of particle swarm optimized (PSO) algorithms, named random forest (RF), PSO-RF, multi-layer perceptron (MLP), PSO-MLP, support vector regression (SVM), PSO-MLP, Bagging, and PSO-Bagging, were established for DVMs. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), mean-absolute-error (MAE), root-mean-square-error (RMSE), precision, and K-index were utilized for judging the performance of novel ensemble MLAs. The obtained results show that the PSO-RF had the highest performance with an AUC of 0.874, followed by RF, PSO-MLP, PSO-Bagging, Bagging, MLP, PSO-SVM and SVM, respectively. Produced DVMs would be helpful for policy intervention to minimize drought vulnerability.