Abstract
Tunnels are artificial underground spaces that provide a capacity for particular goals such as storage, under-ground transportation, mine development, power and water treatment plants, civil defence. This shows that the tunnel construction is a key activity in developing infrastructure projects. In many situations, tunnelling projects find themselves involved in the situations where unexpected conditions threaten the continuity of the project. Such situations can arise from the prior knowledge limited by the underground unknown conditions. Therefore, a risk analysis that can take into account the uncertainties associated with the underground projects is needed to assess the existing risks and prioritize them for further protective measures and decisions in order to reduce, mitigate and/or even eliminate the risks involved in the project. For this reason, this paper proposes a risk assessment model based on the concepts of fuzzy set theory to evaluate risk events during the tunnel construction operations. To show the effectiveness of the proposed model, the results of the model are compared with those of the conventional risk assessment. The results demonstrate that the fuzzy inference system has a great potential to accurately model such problems.
Highlights
Nowadays, the world is witnessing an ever-increasing need for tunnels on account of their unique features and potential applications
The main aim of this paper is to propose a new methodology based on fuzzy logic to provide an organized and systematic framework for identifying and analysing the significance of potential events associated with tunnel construction
Probability-impact (P-I) matrix is a powerful risk analysis tool which is widely used in different aspects of science, management and engineering problems
Summary
The world is witnessing an ever-increasing need for tunnels on account of their unique features and potential applications. The Jubilee Line Transit Project in London was finished two years late and £1.4 billion (67%) over budget (the budget which was communicated at the time of decision to proceed) and Denmark’s Great Belt Link with 54% over budget (Salvucci 2003). To avoid such problems, managers are obliged to carry out a risk management program. Risk management in tunnelling helps authorities to make a proper decision on account of the following reasons (Reilly, Brown 2004; Fouladgar et al 2012b): 1) to reduce the risk to project goals and objectives; 2) to demonstrate that options were comprehensively and rationally evaluated; 3) the process will reveal useful information even if hazards do not occur; 4) to clarify internal project goals, objectives and priorities and focus the project team; and 5) probable ranges of cost and schedule can be estimated
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