Proposing a method to model ship collision risk in maritime transpport based on fuzzy logic considering the influence of ship approach angle

Abstract

Modeling and assessing the collision risk of ships in complex and crowded water areas plays an important role in improving marine traffic monitoring and management to enhance the safety of maritime transport. To model the collision risk assessment of ships in an area, this paper proposes a method to model ship collision risk based on fuzzy logic considering the influence of the approach angle between two ships. The method uses a hierarchical fuzzy system consisting of two fuzzy systems, fuzzy system 1 is used to calculate temporary collision risk, and fuzzy system 2 will use the output of fuzzy system 1 combined with input which is the approach angle between two ships to calculate the final collision risk. The fuzzy systems constructed in this paper are all modeled from expert knowledge allowing any officer to reference the calculation results of experts in approach situations. The paper only proposes the method, result verification can be done by simulation which will be done in further study. This model can provide an important basis for monitoring and assessing maritime collision risk and maritime risk assessment of ships for maritime administrations.