Proposing a decision-making model using analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy expert system for prioritizing industries in installation of combined heat and power systems

Abstract

Restructuring electric power and increasing energy cost encourage large energy consumers to utilize combined heat and power (CHP) systems. In addition to these two factors, the gradual exclusion of subsidies is the third factor intensifying the utilization of CHP systems in Iran. In this paper, a hybrid decision making model has been proposed for prioritizing Iranian industries to install CHP systems. Integrated analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy expert system (FES) has been applied. Weighted amount of each decision criterion which calculated by AHP affects the fuzzy membership function in FES model. In this model, 23 Iranian industries (based on international standard industrial classification) are ranked using the combination of AHP and FES considering weighted criteria and actual data. The results demonstrate that the priority of chemical, non-metallic minerals, refined petroleum, food products and beverages, basic metals, paper and paper products, and textile industries, for installation of CHP is more than other industries. The similarity of these results with the share of different industries in installed CHP in developed countries indicates the validity of the proposed decision-making model. This model can be applied for solving similar decision-making problems.