Proposed new simple scoring system to identify indications for urgent ERCP in acute cholangitis based on the Tokyo Guidelines

Abstract

The Tokyo Guidelines (TG) have enabled more accurate diagnosis of acute cholangitis (AC). This study was undertaken to develop a new prognostic scoring system to predict the need for urgent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) based on the clinical findings on admission. We prospectively reviewed 40 consecutive cases of AC and divided them into an urgent-ERCP group and an elective-ERCP group. Univariate analysis identified four factors that predicted the need for urgent ERCP: serum albumin level below 3.0g/dl, blood urea nitrogen level above 20mg/dl, platelet count below 120,000/μl, and the presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome. These four predictors plus four predictors of organ dysfunction in the TG: shock, consciousness disturbance, respiratory failure, and prothrombin time/international normalized ratio >1.5, were used to devise a scoring system in which 1 point was assigned for the first four predictors and 2 points were assigned for the latter four predictors (maximum score possible: 12 points). The receiver-operator characteristic curve of the scores showed good test performance for predicting the need for urgent ERCP and for predicting a positive blood culture, and the areas under the concentration curves (AUCs) were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. The optimal cut-off value for urgent ERCP was 2 points. This new simple scoring system allows identification of high-risk AC patients soon after admission to hospital.