Proposals for Improvement of the Agricultural Outlook Program of the United States

Abstract

First, however, a general observation appears in order. The agricultural outlook program in the United States, as a cooperative undertaking between the United States Department of Agriculture and the land-grant universities, is the most comprehensive and the most accurate, has the best timing, and is the most widely used of any agricultural outlook program of any country. Therefore, a word of caution may be in order to agricultural economists and others who critically examine the outlook program. Make sure that the whole of the program is not seriously impaired while orally chastising specific parts of the program at professional meetings such as this one. Assuming that the total agricultural outlook program represents the best efforts so far in this field, corrective measures call only for evolutionary rather than revolutionary changes of its policies, procedures, and analyses. In other words, only periodic evaluation and subsequent adjustment, rather than complete reorientation of content and methodology, are required. Now to the proposals for improvement of the agricultural outlook program. Nine are made. The first proposal for improvement is that outlook information and analyses prepared in the United States Department of Agriculture must be supported by more and better studies in the states. Outlook patterns vary widely by states and by important areas within states. Furthermore, state outlook economists often are in a better position to give interpretive explanations than are federal analysts. Some states are making meaningful evaluations; others are largely letting the federal analysts do it. A number of states do not compile ade-