Proposal of a practical stability probability model for cut slopes reflecting characteristics of weathering and angle of stratification

Abstract

This research evaluates the stability of cut slopes, considering the effects of weathering and the angle of stratification. Incorporating both a weathering degree index and a factor of safety, we developed a novel formula to assess the temporal deterioration of cut slopes. Utilizing this formula, logistic regression was conducted to ascertain cut slope stability. We used the Hierarchical Bayesian model to refine the parameters of the logistic regression function, culminating in the formulation of a comprehensive slope stability probability prediction model. The model’s predicted stability probabilities for diverse cut slopes exhibited a compelling congruence with empirical data upon validation. Importantly, this approach provides expressway management authorities with a tool to preliminarily assess whether longstanding in-service cut slopes require intervention or stabilization measures.