Abstract
According to the European Commission’s “Europe 2020” strategy, the early school leaving (ESL) rate in European Union (EU) Member States must be reduced to a maximum of 10 per cent by 2020. This paper proposes a nonlinear distribution method based on dynamic targets for reducing the percentage of early school leavers. The aim of this method is to provide policymakers with alternatives in terms of transferring the EU-wide headline target to individual national targets. Weighting was based on four indicators: ESL rate, unemployment rate, expenditure on education as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP), and expenditure on schools per student. As a result, nine possible scenarios for ESL reduction have been constructed for each of the EU Member States in three groups: the whole EU up to June 2013 (EU27), EU Member States which joined before 30 April 2004 (EU15) and EU Member States which joined after 30 April 2004 (EU12). This method allows the European policy to be translated into specific national targets that would converge in the aggregate goal.
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