Properties of solar X-ray flares and proton event forecasting

Abstract

X-ray flares and acceleration processes are in one complex of sporadic solar events (together with CMEs, radio bursts, magnetic field dissipation and reconnection). This supposes the connection (if not physical, but at least statistical) between characteristics of the solar energetic proton events and flares. The statistical analysis indicates that probability and magnitude of the near-Earth proton enhancement depends heavily on the flare importance and their heliolongitude. These relations may be used for elaboration of the forecasting models, which allow us to calculate probability of the solar proton events from the X-ray observations. The models of probability for different kinds of solar proton events are obtained on the basis of all accumulated data of X-ray flares on the Sun and solar proton enhancements near the Earth. These models describe well enough the available data, are suitable for practical use and, really, are already utilized in the IZMIRAN prognostic practice. However, we should remember about the limitation of accumulated statistics. X-ray flares and proton enhancements have been observed for so short time that any new burst of solar activity is able to add something to our understanding of the relation “solar flares – proton enhancements”.