Abstract
AbstractAimThe management of the rapid expansion of wild ungulate populations is a challenging task and a societal priority. Using a progressive database of red (Cervus elaphus) and roe (Capreolus capreolus) deer colonization over the last three decades, we estimate the range expansion rates and the underlying mechanisms involved in the expansion patterns of red and roe deer populations at the south‐western edge of its European distribution.LocationMainland Portugal.MethodsWe compiled and grouped historical red and roe deer distribution data in three time periods (1981–1990, 1991–2000 and 2001–2010). We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate how biotic and abiotic drivers determine the expansion patterns of red and roe deer.ResultsWe reported a significant expansion of red and roe deer populations during the last three decades. The significant interaction between propagule pressure and land cover suggests that the effects of propagule pressure vary along environmental gradients. We found that the influence of livestock on red and roe deer expansion is idiosyncratic. Contrary to red deer, roe deer expansion was also influenced by climatic conditions. We did not detect any significant effect of human factors on the red and roe deer expansion.Main conclusionsThe synergistic effects between variables should be taken into account when studying the patterns of species expansion. Our study emphasize that policy makers should consider the spatial, temporal, ecological and societal nuances of species expansion in order to prioritize management measures and to allocate management budgets. Although concerted strategies to curtail species spread should mitigate red and roe deer economic and ecological impacts, these effects can be neutralized by a continuous rural exodus and the consequent forest and shrub encroachment.
Highlights
Wild ungulates of the Palearctic realm are experiencing an ongoing increase in their geographical distribution
We reported a significant expansion of red and roe deer populations during the last three decades, i.e. red and roe deer currently occupies an area of approximately 14 and 5
Red and roe deer were spotted in 517 and 1589 parishes, respectively, which means that both species occur permanently in one-third of mainland Portugal (Figure 3)
Summary
Wild ungulates of the Palearctic realm are experiencing an ongoing increase in their geographical distribution. Various factors have been involved in the demographic burgeoning of these species, such as socio-economic changes (e.g. rural exodus and abandonment of traditional agricultural practices), renaturalization of the habitats, reintroduction programs for both conservation and hunting purposes, the ongoing decrease in the hunters number and the common practice of supplemental feeding, especially in hunting managed areas The decline in number and distribution of large terrestrial carnivores due to human persecution is frequently referred as an important cause for the rise of wild ungulate populations (Jędrzejewski et al, 2010). The expansion of wild ungulates comes with a cost, representing a conservation and management challenge, in areas where no measures are implemented to mitigate the increasing human-wildlife conflicts (Bueno et al, 2010; Cromsigt et al, 2013; Perea, Girardello & San Miguel, 2014).
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