Propagation of crust deformation anomalies related to the Menyuan MS 6.9 earthquake

Abstract

Decoding the variation laws of the deformation field before strong earthquakes has long been recognized as an essential issue in earthquake prediction research. In this paper, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of deformation anomalies in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau before and after the Menyuan MS 6.9 earthquake were studied by using the Fisher statistical test method. By analyzing the characteristics of these anomalies, we found that: 1) The deformation anomalies are mainly distributed in the marginal front area of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, where short-term deformation anomalies are prone to occur due to a high gradient of gravity; 2) The deformation anomalies along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are characterized by spatial propagation, and the migration rate is about 2.4 ​km/d. The propagation pattern is counterclockwise, consistent with the migration direction of MS ​≥ ​6.0 earthquakes; 3) The time and location of the Menyuan earthquake are related to the group migration of earthquakes with MS ​≥ ​6.0. Finally, based on the results of gravity field variation and the theory of crust stress wave, the law of deformation anomaly distribution was discussed. We suggest that both the deformation propagation along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the earthquake migration are possibly associated with the variation of the stress field caused by subsurface mass flow.