Propaganda and Skepticism

Abstract

AbstractExisting work on propaganda finds that its extremeness and effectiveness vary in sometimes puzzling ways in response to major environmental factors such as repression, diversion, and crisis. Formal models of propaganda generally examine these factors in isolation, rendering a comprehensive understanding difficult; moreover, they often impose rationality assumptions at odds with experimental findings. I propose a behavioral game‐theoretic model of propaganda in which, consistent with psychology research, citizens are cognitively constrained and their skepticism toward propaganda is endogenous. These cognitive constraints generate a trade‐off for the propagandist between motivating extreme action through extreme statements and triggering citizen skepticism. I then incorporate repression, diversion, and crisis into the model. I synthesize, and explain, empirical findings on the relationships between these factors by showing how each affects both the citizen's level of skepticism and the propagandist's calculus.