Abstract
Evidential reasoning is hard, and errors can lead to miscarriages of justice with serious consequences. Analytic methods for the correct handling of evidence come in different styles, typically focusing on one of three tools: arguments, scenarios or probabilities. Recent research used Bayesian networks for connecting arguments, scenarios, and probabilities. Well-known issues with Bayesian networks were encountered: More numbers are needed than are available, and there is a risk of misinterpretation of the graph underlying the Bayesian network, for instance as a causal model. The formalism presented here models presumptive arguments about coherent hypotheses that are compared in terms of their strength. No choice is needed between qualitative or quantitative analytic styles, since the formalism can be interpreted with and without numbers. The formalism is applied to key concepts in argumentative, scenario and probabilistic analyses of evidential reasoning, and is illustrated with a fictional crime investigation example based on Alfred Hitchcock’s film ‘To Catch A Thief’.
Highlights
Establishing what has happened in a crime is often not a simple task
We proposed a formalism in which the presumptive validity of arguments is defined in terms of case models, and studied properties
We showed that the qualitative definitions of case models and presumptive validity have a quantitative representation in terms of probability functions
Summary
Establishing what has happened in a crime is often not a simple task. Many errors can be made, with confirmation bias and statistical reasoning errors among the welldocumented sources of mistakes (cf. Kahneman 2011). In the literature on correct evidential reasoning, three structured analytic tools are distinguished: arguments, scenarios and probabilities (Anderson et al 2005; Dawid et al 2011; Kaptein et al 2009). These tools are aimed at helping organize and structure the task of evidential reasoning, thereby supporting that good conclusions are arrived at, and foreseeable mistakes are prevented. Key concepts used in argumentative, scenario and probabilistic analyses of reasoning with evidence are discussed in terms of the proposed formalism. The idea underlying this theoretical contribution is informally explained . The crime story of Alfred Hitchcock’s famous film ‘To Catch A Thief’, featuring Cary Grant and Grace Kelly (1955) is used as an illustration
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
