Abstract
This paper proposes a method which, by using past collapse test information and Bayesian updating, can provide a quantified confidence level that the ultimate capacity may be at a higher level than the test load. Thus this method is likely to predict a safe ultimate capacity greater than that possible using the current methods associated with proof load testing. The main advantages of the proposed method are as follows: (1) It may be possible to determine with a high degree of confidence that the ultimate load capacity is greater than the test load. In a conventional proof load test, the maximum test load is taken as the 'proven' ultimate capacity; and (2) Once the subjective 'likelihood function' described in the paper is determined through engineering consensus for a particular type of bridge, the procedure becomes standardised. That is, two engineers are likely to reach the same conclusion from two tests with similar results. For the covering abstract see ITRD E108224.
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