Promotion of solar energies usage in Iran: A scenario-based road map

Abstract

With a gradual paradigm shift from fossil fuels to clean and renewable energies, many countries seek to make use of these energies in their pursuit of sustainable development. Given the importance of sustainable development, use and expansion of renewable energy sector in developing countries such as Iran, this study identified the critical factors of success and failure in sustainable development of this sector. The effective factors were positioned in a business model canvas. After model validation, factors were partitioned into different levels, the relationships between model dimensions were investigated by interpretive structural modeling and fuzzy cognitive mapping, and finally, the scenarios of development of solar energy sector were analyzed. This study was a survey research based on questionnaires and interviews. The surveyed population consisted of experts in the field of renewable energies in Iran. After positioning the factors in the business model canvas, they were divided into two groups, influenced factors and influencing factors. The scenario analyzed based on the outputs of the software FCMapper indicate that the ability of the renewable energy sector to grow and reach stable revenues depends on due attention to customer segments, establishing strong relationships with targeted customer, and the supportive actions of the government.