Abstract
A system and methodology for evaluating manufacturers' trade promotions which may be combined with consumer promotions is described. The methodology incorporates concepts from expert systems in order to evaluate promotions on a mass scale (i.e., by geographical area and size or flavor) with a minimum of analyst intervention. The system uses available data (shipments, warehouse withdrawal or store level scanner data) and contains a knowledge base to recognize and adjust for data irregularities. The system estimates a baseline of what sales would have been had a promotion not been run. The three available real cases where promotions were discontinued are shown as partial validation for the procedure. The large potential biases in using only factory shipment data for evaluating promotions are also explored.
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