Promisingness in Theory Choice

Abstract

This chapter proposes a new criterion of theory choice. I begin with a criticism on a traditional criterion of theory choice. Contra the traditional approach, I argue that theory choice is a situation where scientists are reasoning what theory should be favoured as the most promising theory in the area rather than the one where scientists choose a theory among all the alternatives to be the best theory in the area. Then, I elaborate the concept of promisingness of theories in terms of potential usefulness. Moreover, I compare promisingness with other diachronic criteria, such as Popper’s potential progressiveness, Lakatos’ predictive novelty, McMullin’s P-fertility, Laudan’s fertility-promise, Ivani’s fruitfulness, and Seselja et al’s pursuit worthiness. Finally, I argue for the promisingness criterion from a normative viewpoint.