Prominence and Polarity in Trade Politics: A Relational Concept of Power

Abstract

Theorists have long considered the relational aspect of power, from the ancients to modern times. Power relationships in international trade are difficult to describe graphically, due to the high dimensionality of dyadic trade data. Trade relationships are nevertheless key features of the international economy, invoked variously as evidence of interdependence, hegemony, and soft power. While the global hegemon may be easy to identify, nuances of relationships among great powers and regional powers are difficult to capture with aggregate trade statistics. Following Lee (2004), I employ hierarchic cluster analysis based on bilateral trade flows. This paper stakes out two computationally tractable definitions of power in trade relations that capture different aspects the true geography of global trade power. Prominence, as I use it, refers to sets of countries whose mutual trade demands mutual attention in trade policy and institutions. When a small set of countries mutually constitute each other's major trading partners, these countries can focus negotiations over trade policy and institutions on their shared interests. The reach of these blocs may be regional or global in scope. Polarity, as I use it, refers to a set of countries dominated in trade by one member. The anchor of the polarized cluster, typically the largest export market, has power over the others, in that it can control access to its own market and thus enforce a degree of compliance with its demands on trade and commercial policy.