Prolonged drought periods over the last four decades increase flood intensity in southern Africa

Abstract

In semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa, climate change and the intensification of human activities have altered the hydrological balance and modified the recurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events, such as droughts and floods. The geomorphological heterogeneity of river catchments across the region, the variable human pressure, and the lack of continuous hydroclimatic data preclude the definition of proper mitigation strategies, with a direct effect on the sustainability of rural communities.Here, for the first time in Africa, we characterize hydrological extreme events using a multidisciplinary approach that includes sedimentary data from dams. We focus on the Limpopo River basin to evaluate which factors control flood magnitude since the 1970. Extreme flood events were identified across the basin in 1988–89, 1995–96, 1999–2000, 2003–04, 2010–11, 2013–14 and 2016–17. The statistical analysis of sedimentary flood records revealed a dramatic increase in their magnitude over the studied period. A positive correlation between maximum river flow and antecedent prolonged drought conditions was found in South Africa and Mozambique. Most importantly, since 1980, we observed the likely decoupling of extreme floods from the magnitude of La Niña events, suggesting that the natural interannual variability driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been disrupted by climate changes and human activities.