Proliferation: Scope and Implications

Abstract

In the 1970s and early 1980s, the widespread preoccupation with the ‘vertical’ proliferation of the Soviet and US chemical warfare programmes distracted attention from the emergence of ‘horizontal’ proliferation, involving the spread of these weapons to other countries, particularly in the developing world. Although some independent commentators addressed the issue,1 official spokesmen were much more reticent. Even when the Reagan administration denounced the alleged usage of tricothecene mycotoxins in Afghanistan and South-East Asia — the so-called ‘yellow rain’ controversy — it was primarily concerned with exposing the direct or indirect Soviet involvement.2 Only in 1984, with the confirmation by the United Nations of the Iraqi use of chemical weapons in the Iran—Iraq War (both mustard gas and, for the first time, tabun),3 did ‘horizontal’ proliferation become an issue of prominent concern. If the ensuing anxiety fuelled the quest for new methods of response, including the implementation of multilateral export controls, the evidence of proliferation and the reported extent of the phenomenon became in itself a source of controversy.