Projections of type 1 and type 2 diabetes burden in the US population aged <20 years through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study

Abstract

<p> </p> <h2>Objective</h2> <p>To project the prevalence and number of youth with diabetes and trends in race and ethnicity disparities in the U.S. through 2060.</p> <h2>Research Design and Methods</h2> <p>Based on a mathematical model and data from the SEARCH for diabetes in youth study (SEARCH) for calendar years 2002 to 2017, we projected the future prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youth aged <20 years, while considering different scenarios of future trends in incidence. </p> <h2>Results</h2> <p>The number of youth with diabetes will increase from 213,000 (95%-confidence interval [CI]: 209,000;218,000) (type 1 diabetes: 185,000; type 2 diabetes: 28,000) in 2017 to 239,000 (95%-CI: 209,000;282,000) (type 1 diabetes: 191,000; type 2 diabetes : 48,000) in 2060, if the incidence remains constant as observed in 2017. Corresponding relative increases were 3% [95%-CI: -9%;21%] (type 1 diabetes) and 69% [95%-CI: 43%;109%] (type 2 diabetes). Assuming that increasing trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continue, the projected number of youth with diabetes will be 526,000 (95%-CI: 335,000;893,000) (type 1 diabetes: 306,000; type 2 diabetes: 220,000). Corresponding relative increases would be 65% [95%-CI: 12%;158%] (type 1 diabetes) and 673% [95%-CI: 362%;1,341%] (type 2 diabetes). In both scenarios, substantial widening of racial and ethnic disparities in type 2 diabetes prevalence are expected, with the highest prevalence among non-Hispanic Black youth.</p> <h2>Conclusions</h2> <p>The number of youth with diabetes in the U.S. is likely to substantially increase in future decades, which emphasizes the need for prevention to attenuate this trend.</p>