Projections of Turkey's electricity generation and installed capacity from total renewable and hydro energy using fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model and its reduced forms

Abstract

In this study, forecasting of Turkey's total renewable and hydro energy installed capacity and electricity generation from 2019 to 2030 was investigated. For this purpose, fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model, briefly as FANGBM(1,1) and its reduced forms were used and compared. The prediction procedure was applied for the data sets from 2009 to 2018 and prediction performance of these models were measured with calculation of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value. The FANGBM(1,1) gives the highest accurate results for all cases. According to the results of the FANGBM(1,1), Turkey's total renewable installed capacity and electricity generation were estimated as 80.3 GW and 241.3 TWh in 2030, respectively. Additionally, this model estimates that Turkey's hydropower installed capacity and electricity generation will be 30.7 GW and 57.3 TWh in 2030, respectively. All grey prediction models present that the share of hydropower in total renewable installed capacity and electricity generation will decrease from 2019 to 2030. In 2030, the share of hydropower in total renewable installed capacity and electricity generation is obtained by FANGBM(1,1) as 38.2% and 23.8%, respectively. Finally, it is suggested to the Turkish government to reduce the share of hydropower in total renewable electricity generation by increasing the share of other types of renewable sources due to the consideration of Turkey as an extremely water stress country in coming years.