Projections of the impact of expansion of domestic heavy oil production on the U.S. refining industry from 1990 to 2010. Topical report

Abstract

This report is one of a series of publications assessing the feasibility of increasing domestic heavy oil (10{degrees} to 20{degrees} API gravity) production. This report provides a compendium of the United States refining industry and analyzes the industry by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) and by ten smaller refining areas. The refining capacity, oil source and oil quality are analyzed, and projections are made for the U.S. refining industry for the years 1990 to 2010. The study used publicly available data as background. A linear program model of the U.S. refining industry was constructed and validated using 1990 U.S. refinery performance. Projections of domestic oil production (decline) and import of crude oil (increases) were balanced to meet anticipated demand to establish a base case for years 1990 through 2010. The impact of additional domestic heavy oil production, (300 MB/D to 900 MB/D, originating in select areas of the U.S.) on the U.S. refining complex was evaluated. This heavy oil could reduce the import rate and the balance of payments by displacing some imported, principally Mid-east, medium crude. The construction cost for refining units to accommodate this additional domestic heavy oil production in both the low and high volume scenarios is about 7 billion dollars for bottoms conversion capacity (delayed coking) with about 50% of the cost attributed to compliance with the Clean Air Act Amendment of 1990.