Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

Martin Kahanec,Michael Fertig

doi:10.1186/s40176-015-0029-8

Abstract

AbstractThis study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU’s 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in the case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to a long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.

Highlights

The 2013 expansion of the European Union (EU) to include Croatia as its 28th Member State marks the latest move in the process of the EU’s eastern enlargement1
This paper aims at assessing potential migration flows to the EU from the countries with which the EU is intensifying cooperation – recent entrant Croatia, several candidate countries and members of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) program – by utilizing the experiences of the enlargement wave of 2004
The European Union’s eastern enlargement sparked heated debates in Europe during the 2000s, which continue to date

Summary

Introduction

The 2013 expansion of the European Union (EU) to include Croatia as its 28th Member State marks the latest move in the process of the EU’s eastern enlargement. The EaP consists of six post-Soviet states, namely Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, as well as the EU, and is meant to provide an institutionalized forum for the discussion of political and economic topics of joint relevance for all partners. It aims at providing the groundwork for an Association Agreement between the EU and the Eastern partners, which should eventually lead to the establishment of a free-trade zone comprising the 27 EU Member States and the six Eastern partners. This might result in the future membership of these countries

Objectives

Findings

Conclusion