Projections of insolation changes for solar energy power production

Abstract

With a globally growing solar industry and ongoing climate change, impacts of anthropogenic green house gas emissions on solar power production become an increasingly important issue for planning and management of large solar power plants. Objective of this thesis is to examine the development of solar power output for photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) in coming decades. For this purpose, changes in surface temperature, aerosol optical depth, cloud cover, all sky and clear sky radiation between 2006 and 2049 will be studied globally and for selected regions. Projected climate data was obtained from 39 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models which are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) as well as from the global circulation model ECHAM5-HAM. Results gained in this study are valid for a Representative Concentration Pathway of 8.5 (RCP8.5), which assumes high radiative forcing. Statistically significant results show decreasing PV outputs in most parts of the world, notable positive trends are observed in large parts of Europe and the South-East of China. Trends between 2006 and 2049 are in the order of 0.1 %/year. CSP output shows positive trends worldwide, with few exceptions such as polar regions and the North of India. Compared to PV, CSP shows larger trends by a factor of 4. Content 1. Background 4 1.