Projections of Future Life Expectancy in Selected Belt and Road Countries

Abstract

Background: In 2013, China launched the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative to promote global collaboration in trade, infrastructure and cultural exchange. An ensemble method was used to forecast future life expectancy (LE) among selected B&R countries, to assist plans for future health and social services. Methods: LE data from 20 selected B&R countries for 1950-2015 were compiled and analyzed. An ensemble method was used to forecast future LE in 2030. Findings: LE was projected to increase in all selected B&R countries with probabilities of 95·2% for women and 94·2% for men. South Korean women would have the highest projected LE in 2030 with a 62·6% probability to reach 90 years, followed by Singapore with a 55·3% probability. A projected probability of 29·1% that LE among men in Singapore, South Korea, New Zealand, and Israel would surpass 85 years in 2030. Of the countries studied, Russia, Croatia, and Thailand would have the lowest projected LE gains for men and women, respectively. The sex difference in LE was likely to shrink by 2030 in all countries except for Israel, which would have a larger LE gain in women than men. More than one-third of the projected gains in LE in women would be resulted from improved longevity above age 65 years. Interpretation: LE in the B&R countries would continue to increase till 2030. This calls for more resources for health care and social services. Funding: China Medical Board (Grant No. 16-262) Declaration of Interest: We declare no competing interests.