Projections of future beach loss along the Chinese coastline due to sea level rise

Abstract

ABSTRACT Beach loss caused by sea level rise (SLR) has become one of the most severe worldwide issues. China is also affected because of its dense population and developed economy along the long coastline. For a better understanding of the beach loss situation due to future SLR, this study developed a database of beach length and width along the Chinese coast and then projected the future beach loss along the Chinese coastline by using the Bruun rule against future projection datasets (CMIP5/CMIP6) of SLR. The total beach length along the Chinese coastline is 1731.3 km, while Hainan, Guangdong, and Fujian have the most account of sandy beaches, with 34%, 28%, and 15%, respectively. The worst-case projections along Chinese coasts show future beach loss of 61% and 63.7 km2 for the RCP 8.5 scenario, and 71% and 74.9 km2 for the SSP5_8.5 scenario. The difference in beach loss rate projections is 1% between the global sea level rise (GMSLR) for the RCP 8.5/SSP5_8.5 scenario in 2100. Under the worst-case scenario (SSP5_8.5), 43% of the sandy beach coastline will lose all the beaches. Adaptation measures considering the characteristics of each zone are needed for better coastal management.