Projections of Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics

Abstract

To accurately represent how conservation and efficiency policies affect energy demand, both direct and indirect impacts need to be included in the accounting. The indirect impacts are defined here as the resource savings that accrue over the fuel production chain, which when added to the energy consumed at the point of use, constitute the full-fuel- cycle (FFC) energy. This paper uses the accounting framework developed in (Coughlin 2012) to calculate FFC energy metrics as time series for the period 2010-2040. The approach is extended to define FFC metrics for the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other air-borne pollutants. The primary focus is the types of energy used in buildings and industrial processes, mainly natural gas and electricity. The analysis includes a discussion of the fuel production chain for coal, which is used extensively for electric power generation, and for diesel and fuel oil, which are used in mining, oil and gas operations, and fuel distribution. Estimates of the energy intensity parameters make use of data and projections from the Energy Information Agency’s National Energy Modeling System, with calculations based on information from the Annual Energy Outlook 2012.