Abstract
BackgroundLow vegetable intake is one of the key dietary risk factors known to be associated with a range of health problems, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKDs). Using data from Japan’s National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017, this study aimed to forecast the impact of change in vegetable intake on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2017 and 2040 for three diseases.MethodsWe generated a three-component model of cause-specific DALYs, including changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors, the socio-demographic index and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to project future DALY rates for 2017–2040 using the data between 1990 and 2016. Data on Vegetable consumption and risk predictors, and DALY rate were obtained from Japan’s National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases Study in 2017. We also modelled three scenarios of better, moderate and worse cases to evaluate the impact of change in vegetable consumption on the DALY rates for three diseases (CVDs, cancer, and DKDs).ResultsProjected mean vegetable intake in the total population showed a decreasing trend through 2040 to 237.7 g/day. A significant difference between the reference scenario and the better case scenario was observed with un-overlapped 95% prediction intervals of DALY rates in females aged 20–49 years (− 8.0%) for CVDs, the total population for cancer (− 5.6%), and in males (− 8.2%) and females (− 13.7%) for DKDs.ConclusionsOur analysis indicates that increased vegetable consumption would have a significant reduction in the burdens of CVDs, cancer and DKDs in Japan. By estimating the disease burden attributable to low vegetable intake under different scenarios of future vegetable consumption, our study can inform the design of targeted interventions for public health challenges.
Highlights
Epidemiological research has shown that increased vegetable is associated with a reduced risk of several NCDs, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), high blood pressure, diabetes, cancer and metabolic syndromes [1,2,3,4,5]
In the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) analysis in Japan, assessing the impact of 67 risk factors, including behavioural, metabolic, environmental and occupational factors, on disease burden measured as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), low vegetable intake was the fifth most significant dietary risk factor affecting DALYs, following diets high in sodium, low in whole grains, fruits, nuts and seeds [7, 8]
This study aims to predict the future trend in vegetable intake and to estimate the disease burden of CVDs, cancer, diabetes and kidney diseases (DKDs) under several scenarios of vegetable intake in Japan
Summary
Epidemiological research has shown that increased vegetable is associated with a reduced risk of several NCDs, including CVDs, high blood pressure, diabetes, cancer and metabolic syndromes [1,2,3,4,5]. Low vegetable intake is one of the key dietary risk factors known to be associated with a range of health problems, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKDs). Using data from Japan’s National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017, this study aimed to forecast the impact of change in vegetable intake on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2017 and 2040 for three diseases
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