Projection of weather potential for winter haze episodes in Beijing by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming

Abstract

Haze episodes become very frequent in Beijing over the past decade, and such trend is related to favorable weather conditions. Here, we project the changes of weather conditions conducive to winter haze episodes in Beijing by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming using Haze Weather Index (HWI) and data of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) low-warming experiment. Compared to present day (2006–2015), the frequency in winter season is projected to increase by 14% for regular haze episodes (HWI > 0) and 21% for severe haze episodes (HWI > 1) at the 1.5 °C global warming. Projections shows larger increases of 27% for regular and 18% for severe haze events at the 2 °C global warming. The additional warming of 0.5 °C largely enhances the persistence of weather conditions conducive to haze episodes. The increased temperature contrast between near-surface and mid-troposphere in eastern Asia accounts for 57% and 81% of the change in HWI by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming, respectively. Considering increased haze weather potential caused by climate warming, we suggest that additional efforts in emission reductions of carbon dioxide and air pollution are necessary to mitigate haze episodes in Beijing.