PROJECTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE KHARKIV REGIONAL POPULATION SETTLEMENT SYSTEM IN THE CONDITIONS OF POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION

Abstract

Geopolitical and socio-economic trends, the development and implementation of new technologies, the increase in consumption volumes in the conditions of the growth of the population of the planet in a geometric progression form new challenges and requirements for the creation of modern settlement systems of a new formation: a digital, human-centric and balanced functional-spatial model of territorial development, which would combine the provision of the growing human needs and its harmonious coexistence with the surrounding environment. In the conditions of the beginning of the full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, the population displacement processes have changed radically. The main indicator for the move was safety. Processes of population movement from the territories of large cities to rural areas away from the areas of active hostilities, shelling and missile strikes are being observed. The migration crisis significantly affects the socio-economic processes in the country. The main condition of post-war reconstruction is the return of the able-bodied population, which will ensure the restoration of pre-war GDP indicators. Therefore, it is expedient to model the results of the post-war resettlement system. For example, the Kharkiv regional resettlement system was chosen as the research object. The pre-war trends in the development of settlement systems were analyzed. In particular, the hypothesis of the interdependence of population density indicators with the indicator of distance from the basic center of gravity is put forward. It is statistically proven that population decline is more intense in rural areas. The results of a sociological survey of forcibly displaced persons and the forecasting of their displacement in the conditions of post-war reconstruction are given. A projection of optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios has been developed.