Abstract
What is already known about this topic?An increasing number of studies have projected temperature-related mortality, but few consider the change of population’s adaptability to future temperature and mortality burden from cold and heat effects.What is added by this report?This study offers a comprehensive characterization of human adaptability and excess mortality burden of temperature across various regions of China.What are the implications for public health practice?The temperature-related excess mortality was projected to increase in the 2050s and decrease in the 2080s. Heat adaptability was projected to increase in the future, but along with the rising temperatures, the heat-related excess mortality continuously rose, except for the low-speed rising scenario. Although the excess mortality of cold was projected to decrease in the nearer future, it might not keep declining in the long run, due to the decreasing cold-adaptability, which deserves more attention.
Highlights
There is a great need to better estimate the disease burden related to temperature in China, considering changing population adaptation
A two-stage analysis was used in this study to obtain effect-modifiers in temperaturemortality relationships in 105 counties of China, 3 united scenarios were constructed, future curves were fitted, and the numbers of attributable deaths in the 2050s and 2080s were estimated
The future temperature-related excess mortality was projected to increase in the 2050s and decrease in the 2080s, and cold-related mortality had a similar trend; heat-related mortality generally showed a continuously rising trend
Summary
2050 s of human adaptability and excess mortality burden of temperature across various regions of China in three future united scenarios, which fully considered the mapping relationships between the demographic characteristics of China and the SSPs, which provide more realistic estimates than previous studies. The finding of an increase in heat adaptability is consistent with numerous previous studies [7,8,9], which may be caused by changes or differences in human physiological mechanism adjustment [3], socioeconomic development, the usage rate of air conditioning, and early warning systems [10,11]. Our study indicated a declining trend in cold adaptability, which has not been reported before. Heat adaptability is increasing, and at the same time, cold adaptability may decrease due to reduced exposure to cold environments [6]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
