Abstract
Climate change has an effect human living in a variety of ways, such as health and food security. This study presents a prediction of crop yields and production risks during the years 2020–2029 in northern Thailand using the coupling of a 1 km resolution regional climate model, which is downscaled using a conservative remapping method, and the Decision Support System for the Transfer of Agrotechnology (DSSAT) modeling system. The accuracy of the climate and agricultural model was appropriate compared with the observations, with an Index of Agreement (IOA) in the range of 0.65–0.89. The results reveal the negative effects of climate change on rice and maize production in northern Thailand. We show that, in northern Thailand, rainfed rice and maize production may be reduced by 5% for rice and 4% for maize. Moreover, rice and maize production risk analysis showed that maize production is at a high risk of low production, while rice production is at a low risk. Additional irrigation, crop diversification, the selection of appropriate planting dates and methods of conservation are promising adaptation strategies in northern Thailand that may improve crop production.
Highlights
Global climate change, which refers to increases in the average global temperature, has become a megatrend which will lead to major global changes in the future
The remapping output with a 1 km grid spacing was compared with the original Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) output with a 10 km grid spacing and observation data including data from APHRODITE and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) averaged over 1990–1999 (Figure 2)
The trend was close to both TMD and APHRODITE data, while the remapping output’s precipitation was slightly different from NRCM; the trend Agriculture 2021, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEwWas similar to the NRCM but slightly higher than the NRCM by approximately 1 m8mo/f 1d5ay from October to December
Summary
Global climate change, which refers to increases in the average global temperature, has become a megatrend which will lead to major global changes in the future. Agricultural productivity in several Southeast Asian regions has decreased due to the increase in heat and water stresses, and climate variability has threatened food security in the region. Climate change has affected the global scale of major crops, as shown by Zhao et al [3]. Other major field crops include cassava, corn, sugarcane, oil crops, perennial trees such as para rubber and fruit trees in the rest of the area. The main planted areas of the selected crops are rice, maize, cassava and rubber
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
