Projection of residential and commercial electricity consumption under SSPs in Jiangsu province, China

Abstract

Future electricity consumption may increase due to climate change, but the amplitude depends on the interaction between many uncertain mechanisms. Based on the linear model and policy model, the residential and commercial electricity consumption in Jiangsu province are projected under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The linear model considers climate and socioeconomic factors, and the policy model also takes policy factors into account. We find that the cooling degree days (CDD) coefficient is about 3 times of heating degree days (HDD), which reflects that the cooling demand is much larger than heating, and also shows in the projection. The results of the policy model are generally lower than the linear model, which is the impact of policy factors. For example, the SSP1 and SSP2 of the policy model are 320 TW h and 241.6 TW h lower than the linear model in 2100, respectively. At the end of the 21st century, the residential and commercial electricity consumption in Jiangsu province will reach 107.7–937.9 TW h per year, 1.3–11.6 times of 2010. The SSP1 scenario under the policy model is based on feasible assumptions, and can be used as the target scenario for policymakers to establish energy intensity reduction targets.