Projection of Indian Population by Using Leslie Matrix with Changing Age Specific Mortality Rate, Age Specific Fertility Rate and Age Specific Marital Fertility Rate

Abstract

The importance of projection in national and state level planning and policy formulation is quite well recognized in any country which attempts at achieving sustainability in human development and improving the quality of life. Population projection exercises are basically a part of forecasting growth of human population in the future years over a time horizon. There are various means of extrapolating past trend of change in human population over the future years. These means are determined by the assumptions that are made on the determinants of population change such as time, pattern of changes in fertility, mortality, and migration and other associated factors. The success of population projection depends not only on the technique of projection but also on the proximity of the assumptions to reality so that changes in the future years get estimated with least possible errors. Projections, however, might not suffice when there are significant deviations from the assumption that prevailing conditions would continue unchanged in the future. Also, the projection might not be satisfactory due to failure to incorporate adequately the changes in the policy parameters, technological changes, changes in the migration pattern, etc. Forecasting attempts at overcoming these drawbacks by incorporating the elements of judgment in the projection exercise. Forecasting enjoys the advantage of being based upon one or more assumptions that are likely to be realized in the future years. Thus, forecasts give more realistic picture of the future.KeywordsRoot Mean Square ErrorTotal Fertility RatePopulation ProjectionExponential SmoothingPolynomial Regression ModelThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.